santorum likely to run / UPDATED

“What the president has done — and this is the typical left: We know better, we’ll structure the marketplace, we’ll run it and it’ll be better than if people do it in the private sector. It’s a lie. It doesn’t work.” These are the words of former Senator Rick Santorum in an article from The Hill today about a possible presidential run. In the article written by Shane D’Aprile he says that Santorum has been to Iowa more than any other GOP possible presidential nominee.

Here are a few thoughts about a probable Santorum run…

• Much like Herman Cain, Santorum will struggle financially. He will not be able to contend with the likes of Romney, Gingrich, etc. However Huckabee did not have much money in 2008 and he was able to win in Iowa so it certainly is smart to campaign hard there which is what he appears to be doing.
• Santorum has not been afraid to say some bold things and he has had many circumstances where he made a stupid statement. After Hurricane Katrina he encouraged giving tougher penalties to those who chose not to leave area after they were warned. This is just one example, but in doing some research it would not surprise me if he would make many more of these statements if he did run.
• As this Newsweek article points out Santorum is putting in a lot of hard work in Iowa which is sure to pay off but he may be too similar to the aforementioned  Mike Huckabee. As the piece points out Huckabee is likely to run again and he has strong support there so Santorum would likely have to beat him out in particular because they are both social conservatives.

UPDATE (January 20th) : As I mentioned above there is a good chance that Santorum will say something stupid and he has already done that. Playing the race card on Obama is not a good idea…

Herman Cain 2012?

Herman Cain has announced he will be forming a presidential exploratory committee. Unless there is some major setback, controversy, etc. I believe Cain will announce his candidacy. He has already launched a website and is accepting donations.

Cain has a strong business background and a truly American story. He became very popular during the early stages of the tea party movement and has continued to increase his support. I will certainly list more biographical information if he officially announces his candidacy, but now I want to list a few immediate reactions I have to his possible candidacy.

• Running a business gives you credibility to be an elected official. Anyone who has ran a business knows what kind of hurdles they must overcome that the government throws at them. They also know what life is like for the vast majority of Americans who do have to work a job to make a living. Especially in this day and age we feel politicians don’t listen to the American people or have any idea what is going on outside the beltway but Cain does. Cain has been a businessman virtually his whole life and he has had a great deal of success.
• Going off my last point he is the prototypical non-establishment candidate. This was extremely appealing to constituents in 2010 and it could possibly be appealing to Republicans in picking a nominee for President. If the Tea Party movement continues to have success and influence the fact that he has spent his whole life outside of the Washington bubble will help him tremendously.
• He has never been elected to public office. This would be a big setback and a point of major criticism right from the start. However going back to my first reaction this can easily be changed into a positive.

Matt Lewis has a very detailed column about Cain written 6 months ago which gives some good insight into his chances to win in 2012.  I will be interested to see what people’s early receptions are to Cain and how much early publicity he gets because that will define his chances.